Simulation de l’affaissement des terrains actuel et futur dans la plaine de Rafsanjan, Iran, dû à la surexploitation des eaux souterraines à l’aide de la modélisation numérique et d’une analyse de données InSAR

Abstract In the Rafsanjan plain, Iran, excessive use of groundwater for pistachio irrigation since 1960s has led to a severe water level decline as well land subsidence. this study, advantages InSAR analyses and flow modeling are combined improve understanding subsurface processes causing groundwater-related subsidence in several areas region. For purpose, calibration scheme numerical model was developed, which simultaneously accounts hydraulic aquifer parameters sediment mechanical properties thus considers impact release from compaction. Simulation results past calibrated with satellite-based data further compared leveling measurements. Modeling show that area occurs predominantly fine-grained sediments is therefore only partly dependent on decline. During period 1960 2020, rates up 21 cm year −1 simulated. Due almost solely inelastic compaction aquifer, already an irreversible storage capacity loss 8.8 km 3 . future development scenarios indicate although cannot be avoided, associated can reduced by 50 36%, respectively, 2050 through implementation improved management orchards.